Despite the uncertain environment, luxury is not giving ground. In 2023, the global high-end market registered 8-10% growth compared to 2022; the total value of the industry reached 1.5 trillion euros-a new record three years after the Covid-related crisis. The 22nd Altagamma Observatory illustrated and commented on the positive trend of the global personal luxury goods market, growing in 2023 with an estimated turnover of about 362 billion euros, up 4 percent over 2022.
Estimates for 2024 and evidence on market trends emerged from the Altagamma Consensus 2024 and the Altagamma-Bain Worldwide Luxury Market Monitor 2023. Shaping the 2024 scenario, which the Altagamma Consensus estimates at a growth in corporate margins of about +4 percent, will be variables related to consumer confidence, which is currently fragile, macroeconomic tensions in China, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the scant signs of recovery in the United States, and, for Europe, a rise in interest rates and still high (though gradually normalizing) inflation.
The global macroeconomic situation will favor polarization between more and less affluent segments of the population, with consumers focusing more on buying experiences over physical products. Gen Z and Millennials will drive luxury consumption: by 2030 the former will account for 25-30% of purchases in the luxury market; the latter 50-55%. In terms of channels, retail-both physical and digital-continues to be on the rise and is the channel of choice for Personal Luxury Goods. Physical stores are expected to grow +7.5 percent, while digital retail is expected to grow +4.5 percent. Losing appeal is wholesale.
While 2023 saw sales growth mainly in value, due to higher prices for luxury goods, in 2024 the estimated sales growth will be mainly in volume. Analysts expect "normalized" growth due to uncertainty and volatility in the economic environment. Revenues will maintain a positive trend, estimated at a low single digit of +5/6%. Accessories continue in their positive trend, +6.5% for leather goods and +5% for footwear, while apparel is estimated to grow by 4%. The positive trend in jewelry continues (+5.5%) and growth in watches remains stable (+3.5%).
